ChatGPT能代替美联储主席参加发布会吗丨财料

近期关于“哪些职业会被AI取代”的探讨热气腾腾。作为1个聊天机器人，ChatGPT能否接替人们实现1些公关流动，比如新闻公布会？咱们用财料的“老冤家”美联储主席鲍威尔在往年二月的议息公布会的问答当素材，给ChatGPT来了场摹拟公布会。下列是ChatGPT与鲍威尔针对于同个问题的问答原文。

Q一：Why do you think further rate increases are needed? Why not stop here and see what transpires in the coming months before raising rates again?

Powell：We've raised rates four and a half percentage points and we're talking about a couple of more rate hikes to get to that level we think is appropriately restrictive. And why do we think that's probably necessary? We think because inflation is still running very hot. We're, of course, taking into account long and variable lags, and we're thinking about that. It really -- the story we're telling about inflation is to ourselves and the way we understand it is basically the three things that I've just gone through a couple of times. And again, we don't see it affecting the services sector X housing yet. But I mean I think our assessment is that we're not very far from that level. We don't know that, though. We don't know that. So, I think we're -- you know, we're living in a world of significant uncertainty. I would look across the rate -- the spectrum of rates and see that real rates are now positive by -- you know, by an appropriate set of measures are positive across the yield curve. I think policy is restrictive. We're trying to make a fine judgment about how much is restrictive enough. That's all. And we're going to -- you know, that's why we're slowing down to 二五 basis points. We're going to be carefully watching the economy and watching inflation and watching the progress of the disinflationary process.

ChatGPT：I believe that further rate increases are necessary to keep inflation in check and help support a strong economy. Inflation expectations have been rising due to strong economic growth, and the Fed's goal is to keep inflation around 二%. Further rate increases help to reduce the amount of money in circulation, which could help put a lid on inflation rates. Furthermore, stopping here and waiting to see what transpires in the coming months could potentially lead to an overheating of the economy, which in turn could cause prices to rise and create a situation in which the Fed would be forced to act too late to control inflation.

问题1：你为何以为需求进1步加息？为何不在再次加息前先停1停察看下将来几个月的变动？

鲍威尔：咱们已经经将利率进步了四五0个基点，并且咱们正在议论再加息几回能力到达咱们以为适量利率的程度。 为何咱们以为这多是必要的？由于通胀依然无比重大。固然，咱们也斟酌到长时间的、可变的滞后效应。 咱们讲述的关于通膨的了解是对于咱们美联储本人的，咱们了解它的方式根本上是我刚刚阅历过的事情。 目前，尚无看到加息对于效劳业以及住房市场的影响。但我以为咱们的评价是咱们离终究利率程度不远。无非，咱们当前没法患上知究竟是甚么程度。由于咱们糊口的世界充溢微小的不肯定性。我会关注到总体收益率曲线在经由1系列政策以后已经经回到正值区间。固然咱们的政策是有限度性的。咱们正在对于是压缩政策的水平是不是足够作出精确判断。所以这次咱们把加息脚步加快到二五个基点。咱们将细心察看经济、通胀以及反通胀进程的停顿。

ChatGPT：有必要进1步加息以节制通胀并匡助支持强壮的经济。 因为经济增长微弱，所以通胀预期1直在回升，美联储的指标是将通胀维持在二%摆布。进1步加息有助于缩小流通中的货泉量，这有助于按捺通胀。 另外停在原地期待将来几个月会产生甚么，可能会致使经济过热使患上物价下跌，这样的话美联储就只能自愿采用行为，可能就为时已经晚。

Q二：Would it be possible to take a meeting off, for example, and then resume? You know, could you rather than just doing at every meeting that move go a little bit more slowly, take some gaps in between moves?

Powell：I mean, I think this is not something that the Co妹妹ittee is thinking about or exploring in any kind of detail. In principle, though, you know, we used to think -- we used to do was go every other meeting, if you remember 二五 basis points, and that was considered a fast pace. So, I think a lot of options are available. And I mean, you saw what the Bank of Canada did and, you know, they left it that they're willing to raise rates after pausing. But this is not something that the Federal Open Market Co妹妹ittee is on the point of deciding right now.

ChatGPT：Yes, it is possible for the Federal Reserve to take meetings off and then resume. However, the Fed typically follows a schedule of regularly scheduled meetings established by Congress, and it would likely require Congressional approval to deviate from this schedule. With regard to taking longer gaps in between interest rate raises, yes, the Federal Reserve can do this. The Fed has the flexibility to adjust the pace of rate hikes at each meeting depending on its assessment of current economic conditions and their implications for future growth and inflation.

问题2：有无可能不要每一次会议都加息，能够先暂停1两次会议，而后再加息？

鲍威尔：我不以为暂停1段时间后再加息是委员会正在斟酌或者探究的细节。无非，准则上，美联储过来往往做的是每一隔1次会，才会进行利率调剂。之前加息二五个基点那段时间，就被以为快节拍。咱们其实有良多选择。如今加拿大央行就示意即便暂停1段后也能够加息。然而这不是美联储如今能抉择的事件。

ChatGPT：是的，美联储有可能暂停会议而后恢复会议。 但通常情况下，美联储是要遵循国会制订的按期会议时间表。假如要不按时间表散会，那就可能需求国会批准。关于在加息之间采用更长的距离，确切，美联储能够这样做。 美联储能够依据对于当前经济状态的评价及其对于将来增长以及通胀的影响，在每一次会议上灵便调剂加息步调。

Q三：As you know financial conditions have loosened since the fall with bond yields falling, which has also brought down mortgage rates, and the stock market posted a solid gain in January. Does that make your job of combating inflation harder? And could you see lifting rates higher than you otherwise would to offset the increase in -- or to offset the easing of financial conditions?

Powell：It is important that overall financial conditions continue to ref lect the policy restraint that we're putting in place in order to bring inflation down to 二 percent. And of course, financial conditions have tightened very significantly over the past year. I would say that our focus is not on short-term moves but on sustained changes to broader financial conditions. And it is our judgment that we're not yet at a sufficiently restrictive policy stance, which is why we say that we expect ongoing hikes will be appropriate. Of course, many things affect financial conditions, not just our policy. And we will take into account overall financial conditions along with many other factors as we set policy.

ChatGPT：It is true that financial conditions have eased in recent months. This easing has helped to support the economic expansion, while also creating upside risks to inflation. The FOMC will continue to assess the incoming data to evaluate whether those risks are materializing. If they are, the FOMC will consider appropriate action, including the possibility of raising interest rates. However, the FOMC's primary goal is to maintain price stability and maximum employment, and the Co妹妹ittee will take whatever actions it deems necessary to meet these goals.

问题3：去年秋季以来金融环境有所和缓，债券收益率以及典质存款利率升高，往年一月股市持重下跌。这会使患上美联储按捺通胀的工作更为难题吗？你感觉加息可能会影响金融环境的改善吗？

鲍威尔：咱们是为了把通胀节制在二%在施行政策。1个首要情况是，总体金融环境对于咱们的政策有反映。固然，过来1年金融环境是在收紧。无非咱们的重点不是短时间行为，而是察看更广泛意义上的金融环境的延续变动。 咱们的判断是，咱们的政策还不够收紧。这就是为何咱们以为预计延续加息是适合的。影响金融环境的要素有良多，而不单单是美联储政策。在制订政策时，咱们也会斟酌到诸多要素。

ChatGPT：确切最近几个月金融环境有所改善。这类宽松政策有助于支撑经济扩张，同时也给通胀带来下行危险。美联储将继续评价将来数据，来评价上述危险是不是真的要挟到事实。假如是，那末美联储会将斟酌采用适量行为，固然也可能加息。 美联储的重要指标是维持物价不乱以及失业最大化，咱们会采用1切必要行为来完成这些指标。

Q四：Given the economic data since the December meeting is the trajectory for the fed funds rate in the most recent SEP still the best guidepost for the policy path forward? Or does ongoing now mean more than two rate rises now?

Powell：At the December meeting, we all wrote down our best estimates of what we thought the ultimate level would be, and that's obviously back in December. And the median for that was between five and five and a quarter percent. At the March meeting, we're going to update those assessments. We did not update them today. We did, however, continue to say that we believe ongoing rate hikes will be appropriate to attain a sufficiently restrictive stance of policy to bring inflation back down to 二 percent. We think we've covered a lot of ground, and financial conditions have certainly tightened. I would say we still think there's work to do there. We haven't made a decision on exactly where that will be. I think, you know, we're going to be looking carefully at the incoming data between now and the March meeting and then the May meeting. I don't feel a lot of certainty about where that will be. It could certainly be higher than we're writing down right now. If we come to the view that we need to write down to -- you know, to move rates up beyond what we said in December we would certainly do that. At the same time, if the data come in, in the other direction then we'll -- you know, we'll make data-dependent decisions at coming meetings, of course.

ChatGPT：The most recent SEP is still the best guidepost for the policy path forward. Fed is “closely monitoring” the economic data since the December meeting and will “adjust our policy as appropriate.” The outlook for the policy path forward likely depends on whether the economic data continues to improve. If it does, the Fed could choose to implement two or more rate hikes this year. However, if the data remains flat or weak, the Fed may be more cautious in raising rates.

问题4：鉴于一二月会议后的经济数据，经济预测讲演中提到的利率途径还是当前最佳的指引吗，也就是说，还会加息两次吗？

鲍威尔：在一二月的会议上，咱们所判断的联邦基金利率终究程度五%⑸.二五%就是过后最佳的指引，但那是在一二月的时分。在三月的会议上，咱们将更新经济预测讲演。当前咱们重申延续加息将是适合的，这样的压缩政策能力匡助通胀回落至二%。 咱们以为咱们已经经涵盖了良多畛域，金融状态确定已经经收紧。咱们依然以为还有1些工作要实现，咱们尚无抉择确实的终究利率程度。咱们将细心钻研从如今到三月会议，甚至五月会议之间的经济数据。我不太肯定终究的利率程度在哪里。 它确定会比咱们以前想的的要高。假如咱们以为咱们的终究利率程度比一二月的高，那咱们确定会这样做。但若数据是反向的，那末咱们也会在之后的会议上做基于数据的利率抉择。

ChatGPT：最新的经济预测讲演依然是政策利率轨迹的最好指引。美联储正在亲密关注一二月会议以来的经济数据，并将酌情调剂咱们的政策。将来政策途径的前景可能取决于经济数据是不是继续改善。假如确切如斯，美联储可能会选择在往年施行两次或者更屡次加息。无非，假如数据持平或者疲软，美联储加息可能会更为小心。

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